Job growth has seriously slowed in November. While still heading in the right direction, at this pace of 245k a month would be 3.3 years until we got back all the jobs we lost. The vaccine is coming, so it won't take this long, but we are running the risk of backsliding.

Permanent job losers are now at 2.3m above last year at this time. That is job loss that will be slower to recover.

The recovery has slowed, not reversed, that's important. But the reference week of Nov 8-14 is still really only about halfway into the COVID surge

We are now down about 9.8 million jobs. Leisure and hospitality is down 20%. Think about job losses as measuring a hit to demand for firms, this is a long time for businesses to go with seriously contracted demand like this.

The takeaway: this is not an economy with the momentum to coast through the winter virus shock without more aid. The risk of backsliding is very, very high.

People discussing this recovery commonly point to the unemployment rate to show that economic activity is not *that* depressed right now. But remember participation is down 1.7%. Those people are for all practical purposes unemployed too.

We are really close to the end of the tunnel. We have a few more months until herd immunity from vaccines. But there is a lot of risk between here and then. That we can see an end is all the more reason for bridge relief to get us there.