I think what is clear about UFOs is the “normal” explanations don’t work. For Bayesian reasons, I think natural phenomenon is most likely, even though that is not the most parsimonious explanation of the “microdata”, so to speak. That said, here’s an alien thread....

One question about aliens is: Why would aliens behave so coyly with us? Appearing occasionally and briefly vs landing on the presidents lawn. Isn’t that Un-alien behavior, to the extent we can model such things?

But isn’t this how our interactions with uncontacted tribes could be described? There’s a desire to not interfere too much, yet some incidental contact does happen. In fact ourbplanes do sometimes appear as UFOs to them.

Perhaps the intention is not to interfere but the revelations are simply mistakes or oversights. We don’t know how the laws of nature operate when tech is defying it, maybe “mistakes” in being unseen aren’t 100% avoidable

Another way people will think about this is to compare us to ants wrt to these advanced life forms, and wonder why they’d care about us at all? I don’t think that’s a most plausible view of an advanced life form. We are more like a primitive society or pre-human species to them

Would we not take incredible interest in a living pre-human species? Are we not very interest in learning about lost tribes? Not only would we care, but I believe we would have utilitarian concerns

We do as humans spend time and effort studying ants after all! And when respect you primates and endangered species, it’s not as if we don’t care about their welfare when we study in the future wild

In addition, our care with and interest in other species goes up as we become more advanced. It would seem plausible aliens would be even more careful and interested.

So treating us like a curious animal to study, with a desire not to interfere is one story, but there is another possibility, which is the DO want to help, but it takes a long time and lot of precaution to figure out how

It’s easy to imagine that aliens discovering advanced life forms have learned that if you land on the presidents lawn, it doesn’t go well. Even if war does not start immediately, it may trigger an arms race which probabilistically ends badly

I don’t think we would try to nuke peaceful aliens. But I do think we would massively, massively up our defense technology spending. And so would everyone else. And it’s easy to imagine that doesn’t end well

So when you ask, why would they be coyly revealing themselves over generations, allowing the idea of not being alone to become part of our mythos and then attempt to very gradually up our beliefs that they are real... that doesn’t seem strange but maybe strategic utilitarian

And by the way, a theme in the new UFO research is that they are very very interested in defense stuff, nukes, etc. If you were trying to gauge, and perhaps with long-standing concerns, monitor our capacity to self-destruct in a global war, isn’t that a thing to watch?

So I started saying natural phenomenon was most parsimonious for the combined micro and macro data. I will close by saying aliens who are concerned we’re going to destroy ourselves and want to help without setting off arms race is most micro parsimonious.... Also, I’m not crazy

That’s the thread

Also I don’t know if this needs to be said in 2020 but just in case, I’m not a “believer minded” person. I subscribed to skeptic magazine in high school and college, my hero was Michael Shermer, I loved Hitchens. Not a crank eager to believe these things, not a sci fi guy.

Let me know if a thread on the evidence and why it’s compelling and what skeptics are failing at is needed for the future. I assume everyone is up to speed but maybe not