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Natalie E. Dean, PhD
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A thread for fellow statistical analysis plan nerds (warning: math ahead).From Pfizer's protocol, vaccine efficacy will be estimated by the incidence rate ratio. A tutorial on how this corresponds to
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Big news from Pfizer, with apparent high efficacy (>90%) based on 94 confirmed COVID-19 cases at their interim analysis.A thread on how I interpret this news. Briefly:"Celebrate, but let the
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VACCINE EFFICACY 101: A biostatistician's primerTen tweets to cover:- How is vaccine efficacy calculated?- Distinguishing between infection, disease, & severe disease.- Measuring reduced infectiousness.- Vaccine efficacy vs. effecti
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Seeing papers make the rounds that the herd immunity threshold may be much lower than the rough approximation 1-1/R0. Maybe, but let's slow down a minute.#1. There is still way
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What I don’t want:- A return to stay-at-home ordersWhat I do want:- Major investment in proactive solutions that allow us to return as close to normal as possible What do
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On comparing the US CFR to other countries, I would add one point to those raised in this NPR piece. Remember the role of timing! Countries that had large spring
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Half-baked thoughts about superspreading and contact tracing. With the existence of pre-symptomatic spread, the serial interval for this virus is quite short, making forward contact tracing challenging. 1/5 Japan’s cluster
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THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST:The chart below is tests per 1000 people. Relative to other countries, the United States is doing a lot of testing. So why do public health experts
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Living safely is not just about developing new tools (rapid tests, drugs, vaccines) but about finding ways to optimize our existing tools (testing, tracing, isolating) We need to share lessons
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Why is testing breaking down again? Of course where cases are rising, demand is also rising. More people are symptomatic and more people have been exposed. The result is discouraging
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Tomorrow I'll be on Good Morning America talking about dining out at restaurants. I don't know about others, but I find these types of "Should I do this? Or that?"
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THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST: There are more new confirmed cases each day in the US than at any time during the earlier April peak. But is it really meaningful to
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