#Prediction

Thomas J. Leeper

thosjleeper

There's a weird thing in political science literature where people do observational causal inference but avoid causal language and opt instead for the language of predictive modelling but then don't

David Roberts

drvolts

Since I started paying attention to US politics, the vast majority of errors of analysis & prediction -- from pundits, pols, & ordinary folks alike -- are of the same

Kaustubh Adhikari

kaustubhad

We've got a new preprint out! Looking into the prediction of skin, eye and hair colour in a diverse cohort beyond just European ancestry, especially into Native American ancestry, really

Victoria Southgate🦉🇪🇺

vhsouthgate

To end 2020, we have today uploaded a preprint of a cross-lab replication effort of our original anticipatory looking study (Southgate, Senju & Csibra, 2007) that has been used as

Tom Nichols

RadioFreeTom

So, this is a thread not about polling, but about experts, and being wrong. I have no idea if this guy is right, but I've seen this kind of expert

Robby

greerreNFL

I'm not sure what I make of this, but...The closer the market's predicted margin is to a key number, the wider the distribution of actual margins are, resulting in higher

Theo Zanos

theozanos

1/Now in @NatMachIntell: our Matters Arising paper describing our external validation of a COVID-19 mortality prediction model by Yan et al., in collaboration with Matt Barish, @SiaBolourani, @LawrieLau @sareenshahmd https://www.nature.com/

Jord #FPL 🇨🇽

FPL_Jord

Leeds United FPL assetsAfter 16 years we’re finally back! Now we can talk about the best FPL options from Leeds! I’ve waited too long for this day!#FPL #FPLCommunity Before we

AK™

CFCKhanage

The Simpsons predictions (A Thread) This thread will contain some events that the Simpsons have predicted that have come true and also some that haven't happened yet. The invention of

Blackbeard

crypto_blkbeard

Everything you need to know about @polkamarkets and its upcoming IDO ( $POLK ).A short fundamental analysis thread. (DYOR) WHAT IS @polkamarkets?It describes itself as follows Polkamarkets is a DeFi-Powered

Phil Plait

BadAstronomer

Contradicting an earlier consensus, a team of astronomers predict that the Sun will be *very* active over the next few years, and maybe even have one of its strongest magentic

CD Montgomery

MechaNonPlacet

My prediction track record was stratospherically good.https://twitter.com/Tangent3/status/1303255780490182658 My prediction that there’d be nothing in the IMB for Brexiteers (despite months of No 10 promises that there would be heaps of

'Tato Mourinho

CmMourinho

@cm0102SL managers as current Premier League managers. Also, a predicted final league position for each team. Teams are posted in descending order.A thread: @MartinPlaysCM (Martin) - Sepp BlatterThis tyrant has

Mark Alan Fontana

metamaf

Something that comes up time and time again in my work is confusion between (1) *prediction* analyses and (2) *association* analyses. It’s easy to confuse the two. A thread highlighting

Oleg Urminsky

OlegUrminsky

I have reservations about this opinion I'm seeing expressed quite a bit:"academics on campus specializing in social sciences should have been more involved to better factor in human behavior." Thread...https://www.bloomberg.co

Ki Young Ju 주기영

ki_young_ju

$BTC All Exchanges Inflow Mean(7d MA) hit the eight-month high since March when the price hit the year-low. Very bullish in the long-run.Thread 1/ Whales benefit from retail investors.Ironically,

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