#RISK

Benjamin Lebwohl

BenjaminLebwohl

We are so fortunate to have vaccines that are 95% effective against Covid-19. But was does 95% effectiveness mean? 1/ “95% effective” has been misinterpreted widely, with implications for our

Ferrus Ignis

sovereignAK

If a manufacturer rolled out a medical device (like a pump, stint, or catheter) that resulted in 2 deaths in a million, it would be considered a candidate for revision/scrapping

David Spiegelhalter

d_spiegel

My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 experienced by people of different ageshttps://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259.full?ijkey=f1FMGWUz2L39yzC&ke

Adam Kucharski

AdamJKucharski

I sometimes see people making the mistaken assumption that once a group that make up X% of COVID hospitalisations/deaths are vaccinated, it will reduce hospitalisations/deaths by the same %, even

Vikram Murarka

VikramMurarka

1/13. Data on Exports/GDP and USDINR shows Rupee weakness has not helped to increase Indian exports. Why weaken the Rupee unnecessarily? https://colourofmoney.kshitij.com/rbi-risk-172/ @DasShaktikanta @RBI @sanjeevsanyal @ananthng @Nil

David Johnson

David_johnson11

Thread from the @MUFC_SMC conferenece on Injury Risk During the Growth Spurt! Increase Risk of non-contact injuries during the growth spurt (Johnson et al., 2019) Players with a high growth

Phil Huggins

oracuk

The UK Christmas coronavirus restrictions are a fascinating example of compliance and risk management in action. They're playing out how we often see this play out in security. Taking expert

Yoong

yoongkhean

Some info on vaccine efficacy. We tend to make the mistake of 95% efficacy (Pfizer) being 95 out of 100 is protected from the disease while 5 out of 100

ben

benvyle

new blood donation policy announced in the U.K. today. despite the ostensible “progress” (which no doubt will be how this is reported on again and again today), there is much

Muireann Lynch

mu_lynch

The high number of "You can do X but not Y" tweets, where Y seems to have a similar or lower Covid risk than X, are based on the premise

Investment Talk

InvestmentTalkk

1) Intro to Sharpe Ratios:Performance has two objectives, and they are risk and return. Comparing just one element of the portfolio to the market is not enough context. Most people

macrocephalopod

macrocephalopod

It's not surprising to see a massive grifter says something false -- but in this case it's not only wrong, but the exact opposite of the truth.https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1361389203406340098 Chart below is

Deborah Alsina

DeborahAlsina

My OH received his NHS shielding letter today. It explains the extension til end July & how from August he can go out incl. 2 shops but given his "increased

Barton

Barton_options

1/ Fallacy of applying population fatality rate to an individual.Bad statistics. —> bad decision makingAssuming that 3month into the future, the infection fatality rate of COVID19 for 30-45yo male in

尹天熾 - A.K.A. RandyVegetables

RandyVegetables

Hear some people saying that what WSB is doing is wrong, and that they deserve to lose their money. Interestingly, they don't seem to think hedge funds betting >100% of

The Wealth Index 📈

thewealthindex

Managing your Exposure to RiskRisk ≠ RewardIt is common for people to expose themselves to unnecessary risks when investing. The assumption is that this extra risk will result in higher

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