My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 experienced by people of different ages https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259.full?ijkey=f1FMGWUz2L39yzC&keytype=ref

Risk of catching and dying from Covid-19 doubles for each 6 years older, all the way from childhood to old age, overwhelms other factors. Extraordinary consistent gradient: 13% increase per year like some horrible form of compound interest

Over peak 16 weeks, 3 Covid deaths in > 7 million 5-14 year-old school-children, 138 deaths from other causes. 1 in 50 over-90s died with Covid, around 31% increase over normal death rate. Average Covid risk around 30-35% added to normal risk for over 55s, much less for under 55s

The risk of death from COVID-19 during the pandemic, if not currently infected, was equivalent to experiencing around 5 weeks extra ‘normal’ risk for those over 55, and steadily less for younger age-groups, reducing to just 2 extra days for school-children

The risk of death from COVID-19 *if infected*, roughly similar to the risk of dying from all other causes over the next year, therefore essentially doubling the risk. Bit more than a year's worth for over 55s, less for under 55s

Conclusion: dominating effect of age highlights the need for caution at intergenerational meetings. As a simple guide, younger people should be particularly cautious around those over 55. (NB Only look at death: do not yet have good data on long-term morbidity)