Tesla's price may seem out of whack today. The P/E Ratio is insane, right?

But Amazon had similar P/E ratios back in 2014 and 3X higher in 2012. Look at where $AMZN is today.

$TSLA is my #1 stock because I am looking 5+ years out from today and basing my investment on that. Many people aren't doing that. Many people are looking at current or trailing earnings and comparing them to other vehicle makers.

And yes, I do fully expect there to be some major price pullback -- maybe even a short 30 to 50% drop in $TSLA price at some point, but over the long run, I think it goes way up.

That said, I also believe many Gen Z (and soon, Gen Alpha) will not care about old-school fundamentals and will be investing in companies that fit their beliefs, regardless of the stock price. That aside, let me focus on why I like it...

Here's what I see 5 years from now, in the year 2026:

Level 5 FSD (Full self-driving) #Tesla at way safer levels than humans (5X, 10x SAFER?) I'll buy these for my elderly parents. You'll essentially be able to sleep in your car while it drives you to your destination.

Massive Robo Taxi Network - Unless #Uber and #Lyft partner with #Tesla, I think they'll get squashed here.

I did a poll, and assuming autonomous driving data shows it's safer, most people said they'd prefer to hail a driverless car vs a human-driven car like Uber.

Semi-truck fleets - An #autonomous semi-truck can work 24 hours per day minus the charging time (while it loads and unloads).

It doesn't get paid overtime, doesn't need breaks, doesn't get sick, doesn't get Holidays, doesn't get road rage, and makes essentially...

...no mistakes on the road. Normal trucking fleets with human drivers just won't be able to compete on a cost basis.

Long-haul truck drivers are going the way of the coal miner.

Batteries - #Tesla is investing heavily in battery manufacturing. They know a shortage is coming, and they'll likely be in a position to not only make all the batteries they need by 2026, but to become a major manufacturer of batteries for other companies, just like...

...Panasonic & others do today. I'm confident if the tech shifts to solid-state batteries (or something else) that #Musk will pivot to dominate that space as well. Acquiring a company like $QS might be an option?

Power distribution - the cost of electricity varies, sometimes massively, based on when you're using it.

During peak hours, you get charged more. At 3 am, it's probably cheap. Your #Tesla will likely become its own power center, charging itself when the...

...price is cheapest, and feeding it back into your power grid/home (as needed) during peak/expensive times. Your car saves you money.

#Tesla also makes a #powerwall to do this, and the price of these units will fall as efficiency goes up.

Licensing - Other manufacturers will throw in the towel & decide it's better to just license the FSD tech from #Tesla than to try to catch up.

Especially if the data shows the #Tesla OS for FSD is way safer than other OS's, and way, wayyyy safer than human drivers.

No other FSD company today is even close to #Tesla on how many roads and miles have been traveled, with data on it all. If you're letting a car drive you around, you want the best OS for yourself, your kids, and your family.

The Tesla OS could become something like #Android for your phone. With this, #Tesla now reaches a large percentage of new EV's in the world, from many manufacturers, and has a steady and massive recurring licensing play.

#SaaS - This will be a HUGE revenue generator for #Tesla as they start reaching 10's of millions of cars on the road, & hundreds of millions of cars if the licensing play for their OS takes off.

People will pay monthly to have FSD or unique features activated.

People will want internet in their #TESLA and will pay a monthly fee for this ( #Starlink).

Tesla will generate revenue through partnerships for gaming, media content, GPS, etc.

Solar - This will play a big part in disrupting the energy sector. In 10+yrs, I see a world where people generate power & sell to the market themselves.

While not technically #Tesla, I see it helping massively with the supercharging network Tesla continues to grow.

Boring Tunnels - let's face it, we hate traffic, whether we or the car is self-driving.

#Elon owns the boring company, which is starting to create underground high-speed transit.

Just a feeling, but I imagine that once cars are allowed, it will likely only ...

... allow #Tesla OS vehicles in, as they self-pilot into position (like Amazon robots in the warehouses.)

This will benefit the $TSLA robo-taxi fleet as well, allowing MUCH faster travel during congested times.

This one is definitely a long-term play (10+ years.)

#LUCID vs #TESLA - Big fan of Lucid, but they are years behind #TESLA & I see them somewhat competing on the car sales & power distribution portion of points I made, & on a very limited scale.

Their valuation has to be different than Telsa's because of this.

#RIVIAN vs TESLA - Rivian has big investors, but I see Elon out-spending & engineering Rivian to ensure his cyber truck does everything better.

Tesla moves fast. Rivian was founded 3 yrs before the Model S. 12 yrs later, Rivian still doesn't have a production vehicle.

#ElonMusk just has too much of a headstart and too many miles of data being accumulated which helps his AI/ML software to get even better, faster. He has SpaceX tech that will improve his vehicles (StarLink being the first).

Price/Performance - #Tesla is rolling out sub $30K cars that destroy the competition in terms of performance.

Market penetration to be massive in the next 5 years.

This #Tesla thread is getting pretty long, but those are just some of the reasons why I am bullish on $TSLA.

So yeah, I'm super bullish on a company that I think fundamentally disrupts industries on so many levels.

(26/25) 🥴
BTW, this is in no way due diligence. Just my thoughts outside of the technical/financial diligence one might do.

And much like Amazon has done from starting out and being valued as an online book store, I think Tesla will break out into various massive markets too.
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