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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
I have a few thoughts on this and similar polls that ask people if they'll get vaccinated.1. In the medium run, the limiting factor is likely to be access and
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At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, polling is more accurate than its critics think but probably *not* as accurate
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Basically, the additional uncertainty introduced into an election forecast by COVID-19 falls into two buckets:1) It means there's a lot of *news* and economic volatility.2) It could screw with the
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Today's the day when I finalize all the parameters in our model related to uncertainty and it always gets me in a mood. One thing it's important to bear in
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At the risk of restarting the MRP wars: For the last 3 models I've designed (midterms, primaries, now revisiting stuff for the general) trying to impute how a state will
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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deathsToday: 757Yesterday: 854One week ago (7/4): 306Newly reported casesT: 63KY: 67K7/4: 52KNewly reported testsT: 634KY: 823K7/4: 642KPositive test rateT: 9.9%Y: 8.1%7/4: 8.1% The
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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:Newly reported deathsToday: 644Yesterday: 701One week ago (6/25): 647 + 1854†Newly reported casesT: 53KY: 53K6/25: 39KNewly reported testsT: 635KY: 621K6/25: 638KPositive test rateT: 8.3%Y: 8.5%6/25:
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One other thing here: usually, you'd expect the election to revert to the mean. And if forced to bet, I'd bet on Biden's margin narrowing, possibly to the point where
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This dynamic is interesting but complicated. While it's plausible there's a relationship between political partnership and COVID spread, e.g. if Trump voters are doing less distancing, right now by far
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