At the end of the day, it's only July, there are a lot of unprecedented events happening, polling is more accurate than its critics think but probably *not* as accurate as it was in say 2004-2012—and if we wind up in a photo finish, Trump likely wins b/c of the Electoral College.

So while Biden has a robust polling lead now, and a number of other things going for him, it's a little early to be all that confident about what is going to happen.

I think part of it, too, is the pandemic warps people's sense of time (it certainly warps mine). November feels weirdly soon if you don't have the usual milestones and rhythms to ground yourself. But in political time, the final 99 days of the campaign are often an eternity.