Toggle navigation
TWunroll
TWunroll
faq
Contact US
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
One other thing—and being in a pandemic where there's less casual social interaction probably makes this worse—is that I've never had less idea what people outside the politico-journo bubble are
Read more
One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over
Read more
All right, folks, here's our last PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UPDATE of 2020 to accompany our final forecast.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/ At the end here, our model defaults to a very "p
Read more
Not gonna do any model meta stuff since 1) who cares 2) everyone's forecasts are *pretty* similar. But just one stray comment on this interesting reading from the Economist team
Read more
A Fox News national poll showing Trump down 5 is one of his better results lately; keep in mind that Fox News polls hasn't had particularly good news for Trump
Read more
Not hugely surprising, but we find—in running regressions on every House race since 1998 and every Senate race since 1990—that the importance of candidate-quality measures is decreasing, while the importance
Read more
If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state
Read more
See, this is why the "fundamentals" are kind of overrated. It's not at all obvious that they would have favored Bush in 1988 or Clinton in 1992 **unless you know
Read more
FWIW, these highly track with populations; these states represent 36% of the US population and 38% of the sorting machines removed. So while the situation is quite concerning, I don't
Read more
When people talk about "second waves" of COVID-19 within a country or a state, they need to look carefully at *where* within the country or state the cases are increasing.
Read more
This is not correct. Not only was it imaginable... it was widely predicted in March that COVID would be a highly persistent problem.1. An expert panel in March predicted ~200K
Read more
Offered as an illustration of the limits of "fundamentals"-based election models:The "Time for Change model", as specified here, predicts that Trump will lose the popular vote by ~36 points (not
Read more
‹
1
2
3
›
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our
Cookie Policy
to improve your experience.
I agree