This dynamic is interesting but complicated. While it's plausible there's a relationship between political partnership and COVID spread, e.g. if Trump voters are doing less distancing, right now by far the best predictor of a state's R is how many people had COVID before. https://twitter.com/binarybits/status/1273378553325903874
This graph compares the total number ever infected via @youyanggu versus current estimates of R via http://rt.live . There is a strong (correlation = -0.69) inverse relationship. The *less* COVID a state had before, the *faster* it's spreading now.
Probably also some effects due to weather, as mentioned before. If you control for the total number ever infected and google searches for "air conditioning" (as a proxy for people being indoors vs. outdoors) Trump margin of victory has no effect on current R.
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