All right, folks, here's our last PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UPDATE of 2020 to accompany our final forecast. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

At the end here, our model defaults to a very "polls-only" forecast. So here's our version of a "no tossups" map based on final polling average in each state. Very unlikely that all of these turn out right as NC, ME-2, GA, OH, IA, TX all within 2 points.

If Biden beats his forecast by 3 points nationally, here's the map you wind up with instead, with OH, IA and TX flipping blue.

Trump beating his polls by 3 points results in a tenuous win for Biden, on the other hand. This is a winning map for Biden—he has the cushion to withstand a 2016-style polling error—but might be tough for Democrats to hold the Senate and this race could take a long time to call.

There's nothing intrinsic that would prevent there from being a larger polling error than 2016, which is why Trump has some chances of winning outright. But there are also a fair number of close Biden wins. An 89% chance of winning ≠ an 89% chance of a landslide victory.

I do think it's vital to keep the context of the election in mind, though. Trump didn't win the last election by much, against a highly unpopular opponent, and most people think things are going really badly in the US. Not hard to see why he's losing.