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James Ward
JamesWard73
Adding one more to the pile of “probably a vaccine effect” charts: this is England cases for the over-80s, expressed as a % of total cases. Having been stubbornly static
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The Return of the Quadratic: a thread, in which I attempt to fix the theoretical issues with the quadratic model of vaccine effects (which had caused me to lose faith
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Taking a break from hunting through covid data for vaccine effects, I decided to respond to the many requests (well, two) to update my model that explores the effects of
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I have updated my analysis of potential vaccine effects in over-80s cases with today’s latest dashboard data. I am increasingly confident that this does show an actual impact of vaccines,
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So I have a theory on this. And if I'm right, there's bad news about that acceleration in the overall case trend, and possibly good news about vaccines in the
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You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but
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Taking a short break from modelling ‘vax & relax’ strategies, I have updated my model of infections at local level (MSOA) in England, looking for any evidence of impact on
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