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Eric Basmajian
EPBResearch
Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflationIt has been clear for several months that we are in
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Quick thread on the recent CPI reportThere is a battle between long-term (secular) disinflation and a short-term cyclical rise in industrial-based inflationThe market is desperately hoping the cyclical inflation wins,
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What factors are driving Treasury yields higher? Is it inflation, growth, or something else? While the DKW model is imperfect, it provides some context around which factors are driving Treasury
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How high will bond yields rise? 2.0%? 3.0%? This isn't about yield curve control. This is about when higher yields start to change the vector or direction of economic growth.
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An overview of the jobs report and some thoughts on why the market doesn't "care" that much about headline "beats" or "misses" (Thread)1/ To start, we added just 49k jobs
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The deflationary output gap...how big is it and how long will it take to close? 1/ The nominal GDP output gap reached 10% of potential GDP in Q2 of 2020,
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Quick Breakdown of the GDP Report: Nominal GDP growth increased to -1.2% on a year over year basis. This increase in nominal growth is clearly very expected. 1/ Real GDP
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An update on bank lending from commercial banks: an open question in 2021...Signs of stability can be seen in various key segments. While total loan growth is declining in nominal
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I have been discussing the trends in inflation lately. Today's report showed more of the same. Inflation is coming from the industrial upturn, concentrated in the goods sector while the
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Private inventories to GDP are rock bottomThis is because of a sudden & forced shift to at home goods consumption that caught everyone offsides The restocking upturn is set to
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Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative. Here are my two cents to make
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US Dollar TrendsThe Fed Trade Weighted Dollar Index fell another 1% over the past month. The decline was led by the dollar falling against advanced economies as the dollar was
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