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Diane Swonk
DianeSwonk
Beware of the Jan employment report. We could be surprised on the *UPSIDE* due to how the seasonal adjustment process works. Jan is the worst month of the year for
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Downward revisions to the Oct & Nov income & consumer spending data make the December data look worse than headlines would suggest. Looks like about 64% of the gain in
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This morning I got to talk with my friend @DavidBrancaccio of @Marketplace. Before we went on the air,David worried some of his listeners would be upset if he referred to
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Personal news. I was diagnosed with breast cancer on December 23. I caught it early, which is a reminder of the need to keep your checkups current, despite the pandemic.
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Ok. I thought I was done but apparently not. My own take on the dissonance between Wall Street snd Main Street. Major indices only account for about 20% of employment
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Been working on employment data this weekend for Nov. The biggest hurdle is that we have to overcome a typical surge of more than 400K retail workers that are hired
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I was working on a long thread of all the work I have done on the risk we are going into a double dip recession - we are - and
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It is November 15 - the supplemental UI benefits of the CARES Act lapsed at end of July. The saving for that unemployed households were able to accumulate w stimulus
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Note to Senate: the Cares Act lapsed at end of July. Data on saving shows the families that needed helps liquidated what they saved from UI supplements and stimulus checks
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Congress. Get a deal done. The evidence is in. Enhanced unemployment benefits didn’t deter people from work but did support spending. Without it, we are toast. We just lost $18b
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Warning about the weekly UI claims data out today. The data is an a mess. Many UI claims now represent multiple attempts by workers still unable to get the UI
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