Warning about the weekly UI claims data out today. The data is an a mess. Many UI claims now represent multiple attempts by workers still unable to get the UI benefits that they qualify for - many states are carrying their unfinished business on claims for weeks on end.

Many states are also double counting their initial UI claims with the special pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) approved by the CAREs Act. That means many PUA claims, which should not show up in state totals but as a separate line item, are also being double counted.

Continuing claims, which should give us a sense of what is happening as workers are called back, are also distorted. PUA continuing claims are supposed to show up as a separate line item. Many states are also counting them in continuing claims.

This the residual of antiquated state systems with rapid changes in laws that overwhelmed the systems. Some states also made UI benefits tough to qualify for to limit UI benefits the paid out. I find the latter cruel.

Four states have not even begun to process PUA claims, despite the losses people have endured for months w/o employment.

Bottom Line: The week UI data, which is derived by different methodologies across 50 states, Washington DC and Puerto Rico is a mess and misleading. The systems were never designed to handle the rapid changes Congress mandates nor the sheer volume of losses triggered by COVID-19.

This is not a conspiracy - but does represents neglect of basic infrastructure, which we desperately need today. The ability to keep workers and their families w basic necessities such as food and shelter in a crisis.

The employment situation also has problems - payroll employment does not capture self employed workers, while the @BLS_gov has struggled to get census takers to classify workers who are out of work due to COVID as unemployed instead of absent from work.

All this underscores how unique this crisis is. It is difficult to measure on a real time basis the losses we have endured, which are large and unprecedented. Response rates to the survey have also suffered a blow, while it is difficult to estimate the number of firm failures.