Read on Twitter
Been working on employment data this weekend for Nov. The biggest hurdle is that we have to overcome a typical surge of more than 400K retail workers that are hired up for holiday shopping in November. Hiring for on line can’t make that up.
We are also hitting more headwinds in public sector. More than 90k temporary census workers were cut between Oct and Nov, while state and local cuts likely continued. Education hardest hit.
Things to watch next Friday. How have surging case loads compromised health care hiring. Been ironic to lose health care workers amidst pandemic. COVID overwhelms hospitals and cuts elective surgeries. Takes away revenues and triggers layoffs in a health crisis.
COVID also prompts people to stop going to doctors and dentists. Safety procedures have worked well and that may blunt blow this time around.
Pluses are housing construction and manufacturing. Also could see some more upside in professional services but worried about small biz failure in prof services. A lot is linked to commercial real estate sector, which has been hammered by COVID.
Still getting a plus on employment for November but weak. We are getting close (if not already in) another loss in employment. Double dip. Talked w several small biz owners this week. Much came to a standstill again in November as cases surged. 
