This morning I got to talk with my friend @DavidBrancaccio of @Marketplace. Before we went on the air,
David worried some of his listeners would be upset if he referred to the economy as still in a recession. The newly released GDP data showed that the economy had slowed but...

/still managed to eek out its second quarter of gains, which meant we were technically in a recovery. Without debating the nuance of the official dating of business cycles, which is done by the National Bureau of Economic Research, suffice it to say calling what we are in a...

/recovery is still a stretch. This is lousy economy, which is once again losing employment. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, despite a rebound in the second half of the year. That was the weakest year since 1946, when gov’t spending for the war effort ended and millions...

/of soldiers and support staff returned home from abroad. @federalreserve Chairman Jay Powell underscored the dire situation we are in, likening current employment losses to the worst of the 2008-09 recession. (Numerical losses are actually larger.)

Powell also noted that the bulk of those losses have hit those least able to weather the pain, through no fault of their own. The bulk of the nearly 10 million jobs we are still in the hole are in low-wage jobs. Losses in leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants...

/and bars, dominate job losses. He referred to COVID-sensitive industries, which are basically anywhere one might risk contagion by congregating for entertainment purposes. Hotels,
amusements parks, theaters, etc. Made me think, With recoveries like this, who needs recessions?

Indeed, I can’t find much need for recessions. They happen for a variety of reasons and their wrath can be indiscriminate, often hitting innocent bystanders who had nothing to do with why they are happening. A year ago, I took issue with those who wanted a “good recession”...

/to lower stock prices and give them more opportunities to make money. Really? I didn’t mince words with such charlatans, most of which had never felt the ravages of a recession up close. They talked as if recesssion worked like a fast, cleaning out the system.

Recessions are a body blow that inflicts long-term scars that undermine our collective performance. Add in a pandemic, and the long term toll on our mental & physical health & I am going to say this now - never tell me again we need a “good recession.” They are bad.

That said, I have more recently heard those same talk about the need for a “good stock market correction.” Again, they talk about need to create a better opportunity to make money. I too worry about the lofty values of equity prices but for the same reason I don’t believe...

/recessions are good, I worry that any correction that we see in financial markets will be worse than expected and trigger a financial crisis. That would add insult to injury to an economy that is still in the enemy zone of recoveries. Tired of people calling bad things good.

I can simultaneously welcome a recovery, while worrying it is not enough. Not the first time I have felt this way. The dot com bust was more of a recessionette but robbed us of years & don’t get me started on 80s or 70s recessions and the seeds they planted for where we are now.