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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
For context, around 1.2m people in Hong Kong have registered for recent mass testing drive (out of 7.5m). Of 128,000 initial samples tested, 4 of the 6 positives detected were
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Why do COVID-19 modelling groups typically produce ‘scenarios’ rather than long-term forecasts when exploring possible epidemic dynamics? A short thread... 1/ Coverage of modelling is often framed as if epidemics
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Because SARS-CoV-2 testing often happens after symptoms appear, it's been difficult to estimate detection probability early in infection. So great to collaborate with team at @TheCrick & @ucl to tackle
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As epidemic trajectories in Europe rise back towards their spring peaks, a thread on normalisation during a pandemic... 1/ In late Feb & early March, we modelled scenarios for what
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If the reproduction number drops below 1, an epidemic won't disappear immediately. But how many additional infections will there be before it declines to very low levels? Fortunately there's a
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I'm increasingly seeing people quote a single 'global' estimate of infection fatality risk (IFR) for SARS-CoV-2 & use this value to try and make conclusions about specific countries. But, of
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Nobody wanted to see a repeat of the spring, with hospitalisations rising and stringent measures coming back in. But UK isn't in quite the same position as March, so here
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What are the benefits/limitations of mass testing certain populations for SARS-CoV-2 regardless of symptoms? A thread... 1/ SARS-CoV-2 can transmit before symptoms appear, so by the time a symptomatic case
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There are now several studies out there that together give a useful indication of the possible role of pre-existing immunity (antibodies/T-cells etc.) in SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. A few thoughts/links... 1/ First,
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It's notable that many countries in Europe now have similar stringency of control measures as Sweden (based on Oxford index). But there are a couple of important things to bear
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What happens when a population reaches herd immunity? Does it mean epidemics suddenly stop forever? Unfortunately not... 1/ The herd immunity threshold is when susceptibility is reduced to point where
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The response to the 1918 pandemic had some remarkably familiar features, as described in this 2010 article (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862334/#__ffn_sectitle). For example, there was debate about the effectiveness of mask
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