Youyang Gu, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @youyanggu

Youyang Gu

youyanggu

By many accounts, the US will have 100 million vaccine doses by February.I estimated yesterday that we need ~100 million people to gain immunity via vaccination to reach herd immunity.So

I launched a new page that shows the path to US COVID-19 herd immunity: http://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/It's built on the assumption that herd immunity will be achieved via vaccination and natural infection.Tl;dr

The COVIDhub Ensemble model that combines all the models did not perform well over the past 2 months.This is due to the fact that the majority of model submissions did

In our update this week, we've lowered our COVID-19 projections by ~10%. We're now forecasting 42,000 (25-68k) additional deaths & 220,000 total deaths (202-244k) by November 1.See our latest projections

There's been increasing discussion about the role of immunity vs behavior vs interventions in the spread of COVID-19. Louisiana is a good case study because it's the only state that

Here's a thread that contains my findings regarding the relationship between true infections, reported cases, test positivity rate, and infection fatality rate for COVID-19.Full write-up: http://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-i

I've made a major update to http://covid19-projections.com that tries to better account for the increase in cases and the resulting lag in reported deaths.I believe new infections have likely peaked,

I know that the reported numbers from this week have a lot of people saying "I told you so", but from a modeling perspective, the rapid rise in cases+deaths in

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