Wed Feb 10 Weekly Vaccination Update:

New vaccinations has been stuck at 900k-1M per day for the past three weeks, while second doses have nearly tripled.

New doses distributed remains stubbornly low, so this pattern may continue...

http://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

This seems to confirm analysis announced by White House Data Director @cyrusshahpar46 that shows that the majority of delivered first doses have already been administered.

The bottleneck is supply. https://twitter.com/cyrusshahpar46/status/1359178531058581509

California is now vaccinating at 4x the rate of new infections, a tremendously improvement over January.

Florida took a different route but with has equally impressive results thus far. Their rate of new 2nd doses is among the fastest in the country.

No politics, just data.

Here are the vaccination rates for all 50 states over the past 7 days (1st doses on left, 2nd doses on right).

Alaska, West Virginia, Utah leading the pack for 2nd doses.

https://covid19-projections.com/maps-infections 

The continued surge in new variants and the rollout of the J&J vaccine mean that overall vaccine efficacy may end up being lower than 90-95%.

Combined with vaccine hesitancy, it is possible that we do not reach the levels required for herd immunity in 2021.

Nevertheless, herd immunity is not a hard threshold, and being close to herd immunity may be sufficient to prevent large outbreaks.

I don't think our goal should be "herd immunity".

Look out for a more detailed thread on this later this week.