Alan U. Kennington
kennington_u
Vaccine "critical herd immunity strength".Let's call it CHIS for now. Assume 100% coverage.Effectiveness E gives CHI if R ≤ 1/(1−E) = CHIS.So E=70% gives CHI if R ≤ 3.33.So CHIS
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AZ vaccine 70.4% efficacy for #COVID19 means:−log₁₀(1−70.4%) = 5.3 dB case reduction.P/B and M vaccines 95% means:−log₁₀(1−95%) = 13.0 dB case reduction.So AZ effectiveness is only 40.6% of P/B and
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NSW #COVID19nsw 9 new local cases today.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-26/nsw-coronavirus-nine-local-cases-restrictions-back/13015272For each case, people with detailed data can estimate "hidden cases".➀ Downstream.➁ Upst
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