NSW #COVID19nsw 9 new local cases today.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-26/nsw-coronavirus-nine-local-cases-restrictions-back/13015272
For each case, people with detailed data can estimate "hidden cases".
➀ Downstream.
➁ Upstream.
➂ Sidestream.
The total "hidden cases" should be announced each day like a UV forecast by the BoM.
@YouAreLobbyLud
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-26/nsw-coronavirus-nine-local-cases-restrictions-back/13015272
For each case, people with detailed data can estimate "hidden cases".
➀ Downstream.
➁ Upstream.
➂ Sidestream.
The total "hidden cases" should be announced each day like a UV forecast by the BoM.
@YouAreLobbyLud
The purpose of publishing estimated covid19 "hidden cases" daily alongside positive test results is to help motivate restrictions.
People are told about cases which were caught.
They need to know about the cases which were not caught.
This is where infection danger comes from.
People are told about cases which were caught.
They need to know about the cases which were not caught.
This is where infection danger comes from.
And by the way....
— Upstream cases = ancestors of a case.
— Downstream cases = descendants of a case.
— Sidestream cases = descendants of ancestors, and ancestors of descendants, other than cases which are upstream or downstream.
These can all be estimated using detailed data.
— Upstream cases = ancestors of a case.
— Downstream cases = descendants of a case.
— Sidestream cases = descendants of ancestors, and ancestors of descendants, other than cases which are upstream or downstream.
These can all be estimated using detailed data.
Just in case anyone thinks "hidden cases" estimates would be difficult to prepare, how do you think the government decides lockdown criteria?
Restriction locations and measures are chosen to minimise transmission by inferred hidden cases.
So they infer the hidden cases already!
Restriction locations and measures are chosen to minimise transmission by inferred hidden cases.
So they infer the hidden cases already!
Too many people think "mystery cases" are the only serious problem.
A mystery case is a case with unknown ancestors (Upstream).
But you must also worry about unknown descendants (Downstream), and unknown descendants of ancestors (Sidestream).
So all cases may imply hidden cases.
A mystery case is a case with unknown ancestors (Upstream).
But you must also worry about unknown descendants (Downstream), and unknown descendants of ancestors (Sidestream).
So all cases may imply hidden cases.