The purpose of publishing estimated covid19 "hidden cases" daily alongside positive test results is to help motivate restrictions.
People are told about cases which were caught.
They need to know about the cases which were not caught.
This is where infection danger comes from.
And by the way....
— Upstream cases = ancestors of a case.
— Downstream cases = descendants of a case.
— Sidestream cases = descendants of ancestors, and ancestors of descendants, other than cases which are upstream or downstream.
These can all be estimated using detailed data.
Just in case anyone thinks "hidden cases" estimates would be difficult to prepare, how do you think the government decides lockdown criteria?
Restriction locations and measures are chosen to minimise transmission by inferred hidden cases.
So they infer the hidden cases already!
Too many people think "mystery cases" are the only serious problem.
A mystery case is a case with unknown ancestors (Upstream).
But you must also worry about unknown descendants (Downstream), and unknown descendants of ancestors (Sidestream).
So all cases may imply hidden cases.
You can follow @kennington_u.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.