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AZ vaccine 70.4% efficacy for #COVID19 means:
−log₁₀(1−70.4%) = 5.3 dB case reduction.
P/B and M vaccines 95% means:
−log₁₀(1−95%) = 13.0 dB case reduction.
So AZ effectiveness is only 40.6% of P/B and M.
P/B and M vaccines are 2.46 times better. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
−log₁₀(1−70.4%) = 5.3 dB case reduction.
P/B and M vaccines 95% means:
−log₁₀(1−95%) = 13.0 dB case reduction.
So AZ effectiveness is only 40.6% of P/B and M.
P/B and M vaccines are 2.46 times better. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
If you compare 70.4% and 95% efficacy without logarithms, the contrast is even more extreme.
(1−70.4%)/(1−95%) = 5.92.
So the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are 5.92 times better than the AZ vaccine using a linear measure.
In other words, AZ is only 16.9% as effective.
(1−70.4%)/(1−95%) = 5.92.
So the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are 5.92 times better than the AZ vaccine using a linear measure.
In other words, AZ is only 16.9% as effective.
It's beyond my comprehension that Australians are not angry at the plan to give 15 million Australians AZ vaccine which has only 16.9% of the effectiveness of the good #COVID19 vaccines.
This will divide Australians into two classes.
The covid-immune and the covid-vulnerable.
This will divide Australians into two classes.
The covid-immune and the covid-vulnerable.
To give an analogy....
Suppose you have a choice between a 90% effective parachute and a 99.9% effective parachute.
You could say that the good parachute is only 9.9% better.
But it is 100 times better because it has 100 times less failures.
You have to look at infection rates!!!
Suppose you have a choice between a 90% effective parachute and a 99.9% effective parachute.
You could say that the good parachute is only 9.9% better.
But it is 100 times better because it has 100 times less failures.
You have to look at infection rates!!!
To put it another way, we should all be talking about #COVID19 vaccine *ineffectiveness*.
Pfizer/BioNTech ineffectiveness = 5%.
Moderna ineffectiveness = 5%.
AstraZeneca ineffectiveness = 30%.
6 times as ineffective!
Who would want a 6 times as ineffective vaccine!!!
Pfizer/BioNTech ineffectiveness = 5%.
Moderna ineffectiveness = 5%.
AstraZeneca ineffectiveness = 30%.
6 times as ineffective!
Who would want a 6 times as ineffective vaccine!!!
Division of Australians into two classes...
If a group of Australians on a tour are exposed to the same #COVID19 infection danger, AZ vaccinated people can expect 6 times the infection rate of the P/B and M vaccinated.
AZ vaccinated people will not be free to roam for some years.
If a group of Australians on a tour are exposed to the same #COVID19 infection danger, AZ vaccinated people can expect 6 times the infection rate of the P/B and M vaccinated.
AZ vaccinated people will not be free to roam for some years.
To put it another way....
Suppose a group of family and friends want to travel overseas together to places where #COVID19 still has high prevalence, i.e. most parts of the world for the next 12 to 24 months.
The AZ vaccinated Australians will have to stay home!
Suppose a group of family and friends want to travel overseas together to places where #COVID19 still has high prevalence, i.e. most parts of the world for the next 12 to 24 months.
The AZ vaccinated Australians will have to stay home!
