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G. Elliott Morris
gelliottmorris
Some people have suggested that this may be at least partially driven by Republicans who are favorable toward Biden choosing not to call themselves Republicans any more, as they see
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Re: Public opinion on schools: People should note that the vast majority of parents saying they want kids to “return” belong to the white, professional, insured class. Parents of color
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The GOP is actively trying to purge its pro-democracy, anti-coup members. We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file.
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Our latest YouGov/The Economist poll has a host of troubling findings about public confidence in the election.Most shocking is that 86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately
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This map shows you which parts of the country swung to the left or to the right v 2016. Georgia and sub/urban Texas really stand out to me:https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/11/03/the-us-2020-election-results Ohio and
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I don’t know about this... Forecasts in general can definitely be wrong. Assigning a 99% chance to Clinton winning, for example, was a modeling error. If you don’t have the
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Here's one thing about 2020 I can't make much sense of, but maybe y'all can. Puzzle part 1: Biden is doing his best v Clinton's vote margin among whites, especially
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#NEW I did some math & wrote a piece about what trouble with the USPS and vote-by-mail actually means in November. The takeaway is that above-average VBM usage & ballot
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Of the many reasons why Trump's campaign to radicalize white suburbanites against Democrats is doomed to fail is that the white share of the suburban pop has dropped from 93%
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Quick thread: There is some discussion over whether Trump will benefit from the increasing rate of likely voter polls as we get closer to November. We can use our polling
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Aside from the fact that the highlight findings from the Politico cancel culture poll are tainted by question wording and priming effects, I'm not sure they actually tell us much.
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I am going to use Twitter as a diary of sorts to explain what happened with our presidential election forecast (and why) on most days between now and November 3rd.
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