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A few interesting nuggets.
Wage growth is difficult to get a handle on right now, since official data uses averages that have been skewed by low wage job losses. ECI, a measure that corrects for this, only comes out quarterly. /1
Wage growth is difficult to get a handle on right now, since official data uses averages that have been skewed by low wage job losses. ECI, a measure that corrects for this, only comes out quarterly. /1
The CPS also allows us to correct for these compositional effects by looking at the same worker over 12 months.
What it shows is that among workers employed 12M apart, firms typically haven't been responding w/ wage cuts, but there's evidence they *have* been reducing hours. /2
What it shows is that among workers employed 12M apart, firms typically haven't been responding w/ wage cuts, but there's evidence they *have* been reducing hours. /2
This graph shows median *hourly* wage growth among workers employed 12 months apart. While it's not gangbusters compared to, say, 2000 or 2007, it's not weakening and may still be mildly firming. But... /3
...median *weekly* wage growth is clearly weakening. The only difference between these two series is that weekly wage growth takes into account the hours worked each week.
If hourly wages are steady, but weekly wages are softening, then workers must be getting fewer hours. /4
If hourly wages are steady, but weekly wages are softening, then workers must be getting fewer hours. /4
But even that steady *median* hourly wage growth number hides some signs of distributional weakness underneath. The share of workers getting no nominal raise over the last 12 months is rising again. /5
