Here's a pre-buttal on some takes we're sure to see on this new stimulus package:
1. Stimulus checks are only around 1/5 of the total bill.
2. UI in America typically pays around 50% of pre-layoff wages, though it varies. With this extra $300/week, that will be ~85%.
1/X
1. Stimulus checks are only around 1/5 of the total bill.
2. UI in America typically pays around 50% of pre-layoff wages, though it varies. With this extra $300/week, that will be ~85%.
1/X
3. If you're unemployed, you get an extra $1,300 per month through mid-March. If you're a gig worker or been out of work since early 2020, that's on top of having your UI benefits extended.
2/X
2/X
4. The bill includes another ~$300 billion in PPP loans, which are essentially payroll support for small businesses. If a business wants them *fully* forgiven, they essentially have to maintain their employment and wages -- effectively the equivalent 100% payroll support.
3/X
3/X
5. The problem with the US response was not its initial generosity -- we did a hell of a lot more than "just $1,200 checks" back in March, more so than probably any other advanced economy besides Canada, even adjusting for the pre-existing safety net. http://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/growth-and-economic-well-being-second-quarter-2020-oecd.htm
6. The problem instead was that the US leaned heavily on its UI system to deliver aid, which was inconsistent across states and often creaky & overloaded. We also lost the political will to extend expiring aid earlier in 2020; that extra aid would have helped us in Nov & Dec.
7. That's not a minor problem either, it's a major one, and it may come back to haunt us again--this new bill for example reportedly only extends pandemic UI programs for another 11 weeks, through mid-March. That's not enough to bridge us to when a vaccine is widely distributed.
8. But it's a decidedly *different* problem from "all we did was a single $1,200 check".