Thread by @peterhurford, Testing some quick feedback #COVID #forecasts80% confidence intervals:7 day average of US [...]

Peter Hurford, who is wearing an N95 mask

Testing some quick feedback #COVID #forecasts

80% confidence intervals:

7 day average of US COVID deaths at EOD 12 Feb per NYT - 2400 to 2800 (mean 2600) (currently 3054)

cases - 60K to 120K (mean 79K) (c: 136.4K)

1/4

80% CI for number of people with 1+ doses at EOD 12 Feb per https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations - 34.8M to 42.1M (mean 36.1M)

2 doses - 34.8K to 42.1K (mean 36.1K) - 10.5M to 13.4M (mean 11.5M)

2/4

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

80% CI for total infected per https://covid19-projections.com/ mean value of 5 Feb when reported - 85M to 106.9M (mean 92.3M)

3/4

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning – covid19-projections.com

We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally

https://covid19-projections.com/

80% CI for US B117 prevalence ("Daily Percent SGTF of Positive Samples" times "B.1.1.7 as % of sequenced SGTF" in https://public.tableau.com/profile/helix6052#!/vizhome/SGTFDashboard/SGTFDashboard) at EOD 12 Feb - 5% to 9% (mean 7.1%)

Any top 20 US city by population announces stricter lockdown conditions by EOD 12 Feb - 5%

4/4

Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends

Distribution of COVID-19 cases with N-gene Cq<27 across the US. Orange circles call out the number of B.1.1.7 confirmed cases. Graphs depict B.1.1.7 trends in relation to S gene target failure (SGTF)...

https://public.tableau.com/profile/helix6052#!/vizhome/SGTFDashboard/SGTFDashboard

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