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Some say #CovidZero is impossible in Ontario. My thread: trends, precedents and a current example.
First, what is #CovidZero? For Ontario, I consider it as the ability to reach and sustain new cases below 1 per day per 100,000 (145). Zero is the *ideal*. #Covid19 #onpoli
Ontario did not lockdown on Wave 2 until Jan 14. Since then we have ample proof that even moderate lockdowns work. (65% of Toronto area workers are considered essential - Tor Star). The green line is the #CovidZero target. Note that we reached it in the summer. #precedent
Some of the decline in recent days may be data issues but nonetheless, the trend highlights what is possible. We did it once already in the Spring and enjoyed our summer. Covid19 is seasonal, so it will take more work this time. But Melbourne ZEROED its wave in winter.
The Atlantic Bubble is not an island. It's winter there too. It's not that small. There are 2.4 million people and they border the US and Quebec. They do get outbreaks but they repeatedly stamp them out and stay in the #CovidZero zone (<7 weekly cases per 100K).
But back to Ontario. I hear we can't do it: winter, too populated, southern Ontario, too many borders, too much free travel, cases too high, major highways, testing not as good, public health not as good. Yada Yada.
Kingston and Hastings-Prince Edward want to say hello.
Kingston and Hastings-Prince Edward want to say hello.
Their Medical Officers of Health are Dr. Kieran Moore (KFLA) and Dr. Piotr Oglaza (Hastings Prince Edward). You've probably never heard their names. That's because they and their regions are in the #CovidZero zone right now.
They are so good they are helping other regions. But they also know it's the work of every citizen, all 379,000 in their zone. https://twitter.com/MOHKFLA/status/1352696350543147009
And of those 379,000 people, here's how many have succumbed to Covid19 after a year.
These two regions have had outbreaks but they have flattened them. The only real target is zero. Everything works better when you can manage the case load with the staff and resources you have. That's why they know to act swiftly and thoroughly.
Can #CovidZero really happen in Ontario? Yes it can, even now. We certainly saw it happen widely across Ontario in the past (green) and we know what that was like for everyone, including businesses.
To sum up, we know it is challenging. But i believe thatis what a lot of Ontarians want: a goal. One that has proven successful abroad, in the Atlantic, and even here in Ontario. Let's not open up now and feed a variant, let's learn from places like Kingston.
