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Without wishing to labour basic point once again too much. When I joined the Freight Forwarding/Customs industry in 1985 supply of ports/infrastructure/tech support (telex & then fax 
)/*experience* roughly met demand. As an older guy neared retirement we'd look to find a newbie
)/*experience* roughly met demand. As an older guy neared retirement we'd look to find a newbie
to train up surrounded by a tiered level of experienced staff to supervise. The introduction of the Single Market on top of an improving admin streamlined expanding Customs Union meant as the older generations dissipated away there was no longer the need to find so many newbies
The loss of a need for customs clearances; painstakingly looking to qualify under rules of origin with a cert of origin; having to certify standards of produce to ship meant the volumes of trade multiplied exponentially esp in the 2000s. It had become progressively easier for any
relative numpty to set up a buying/selling (no longer an import/export) business with easy opportunities inc working cross borders/exhibiting on the continent.
Then came brexit and the decision to leave the Single Market after 28 years AND the Customs Union after 48 years.
Then came brexit and the decision to leave the Single Market after 28 years AND the Customs Union after 48 years.
Two things could happen to handle the 2020 levels of trade: either
1/ You vastly expand the ports/infrastructure/training (50,000 customs agents/5,000 customs officers/hundreds of vets & port/health inspectors) to reflect the now operating in a different customs territory
1/ You vastly expand the ports/infrastructure/training (50,000 customs agents/5,000 customs officers/hundreds of vets & port/health inspectors) to reflect the now operating in a different customs territory
(outside the customs *union*) and a different standards regulated territory (outside the *single* market)
and a fit-for-purpose, fully up to date, fully interfaced IT systems network...
Even then this flood of newbies would vastly overwhelm any chance of being supervised .. .
and a fit-for-purpose, fully up to date, fully interfaced IT systems network...
Even then this flood of newbies would vastly overwhelm any chance of being supervised .. .
meaning major very costly (prosecutions) mistakes & thus major ongoing staff turnover
OR
2/ do very little or none of the above ..
in which case supply would *not* now meet same demand ..and there would be a massive sudden contraction of trade
OR
2/ do very little or none of the above ..
in which case supply would *not* now meet same demand ..and there would be a massive sudden contraction of trade
causing a massive painful upheaval & a sudden implosive contraction in the economy.
UK Gov has not chosen option "1/"
Go figure....
UK Gov has not chosen option "1/"
Go figure....
