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Thoughts on the podcast industry in 2021:
- many folks continue to act as if podcasting is bigger than it really is
- VCs and bigger companies in search of "the next YouTube" fundamentally misunderstand podcasting's growth curve
- folks are way too bullish on Spotify's strategy
- many folks continue to act as if podcasting is bigger than it really is
- VCs and bigger companies in search of "the next YouTube" fundamentally misunderstand podcasting's growth curve
- folks are way too bullish on Spotify's strategy
Podcasting has been growing "slow & steady" for a decade.
Last year "monthly listeners" grew by 15%.
The year before it was 23%.
Before that, it was 8%.
These numbers are healthy but don't represent meteoric growth.
Last year "monthly listeners" grew by 15%.
The year before it was 23%.
Before that, it was 8%.
These numbers are healthy but don't represent meteoric growth.
BTW – I like podcasting's growth curve!
It's sustainable. It's proving that it's not a flash-in-the-pan.
Slow and steady ecosystems are better for creators. You can build a long-lasting, sustainable revenue stream.
(As long as Big Money™ doesn't mess it up)
It's sustainable. It's proving that it's not a flash-in-the-pan.
Slow and steady ecosystems are better for creators. You can build a long-lasting, sustainable revenue stream.
(As long as Big Money™ doesn't mess it up)
Big Money™ investors are hoping podcasting will provide them with YouTube-level returns.
(Sequoia got a 57x return on its $9 million investment in YouTube).
I'm highly skeptical that podcasting is ever going to provide that level of returns.
Audio's growth curve is different.
(Sequoia got a 57x return on its $9 million investment in YouTube).
I'm highly skeptical that podcasting is ever going to provide that level of returns.
Audio's growth curve is different.
I believe that:
- Podcasters are producing incredible content.
- Podcast listeners are one of the best audiences in the world.
I'm highly skeptical of any outside source wanting to take these positive attributes, and then "juice them" to get better returns.
- Podcasters are producing incredible content.
- Podcast listeners are one of the best audiences in the world.
I'm highly skeptical of any outside source wanting to take these positive attributes, and then "juice them" to get better returns.
The amount of $$$ being invested into podcasting is puzzling.
In the last 2 years, Spotify has spent $1 billion on podcast acquisitions.
In 2021, ad revenue for the ENTIRE podcast ecosystem is slated to be $1 billion ($782M in 2020).
There's a disconnect here.
In the last 2 years, Spotify has spent $1 billion on podcast acquisitions.
In 2021, ad revenue for the ENTIRE podcast ecosystem is slated to be $1 billion ($782M in 2020).
There's a disconnect here.
I'm not the only one scratching their head at Spotify's podcast spending spree. 
Analysts at CITI aren't impressed: "To date, we haven't seen a material positive inflection in app downloads or Premium subscriptions." https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/spotifys-big-bet-on-podcasts-is-failing-citi-says.html
Analysts at CITI aren't impressed: "To date, we haven't seen a material positive inflection in app downloads or Premium subscriptions." https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/spotifys-big-bet-on-podcasts-is-failing-citi-says.html
VCs are hungry for there to be a "centralized platform" for podcasting, where "discovery, consumption, and monetization can happen in the same place."
That desire serves no one but VCs and the centralized platform.
One centralized platform = bad for creators.
That desire serves no one but VCs and the centralized platform.
One centralized platform = bad for creators.
Currently, podcasters have leverage because they own the connection with their audience.
YouTubers don't have that. They're at the whim of the algorithm and monetization gods.
Trading leverage for "more distribution" is like making a deal with the devil. The devil always wins.
YouTubers don't have that. They're at the whim of the algorithm and monetization gods.
Trading leverage for "more distribution" is like making a deal with the devil. The devil always wins.
I'm not opposed to podcasters selling ads.
But I am opposed to one centralized "AdSense for podcasting."
Podcasters: you're giving up all your leverage for low CPM garbage ads!
(Plus: Anchor's experiment in this space is failing). https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/21/22241066/spotify-anchor-sponsorships-ad-money-spend-podcasting
But I am opposed to one centralized "AdSense for podcasting."
Podcasters: you're giving up all your leverage for low CPM garbage ads!
(Plus: Anchor's experiment in this space is failing). https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/21/22241066/spotify-anchor-sponsorships-ad-money-spend-podcasting
There's a reason creators are leaving platforms like YouTube and going to more open platforms like:
- @SubstackInc, @ConvertKit (email)
- @WordPress, @TryGhost (RSS)
- @podia, @memberful (CSV)
You can take your email list, RSS feed, customer list anywhere. YOU OWN IT.
- @SubstackInc, @ConvertKit (email)
- @WordPress, @TryGhost (RSS)
- @podia, @memberful (CSV)
You can take your email list, RSS feed, customer list anywhere. YOU OWN IT.
I’m worried about overcapitalization.
Investing $1 billion+ into a podcast ecosystem that didn’t have $1 billion in total revenue last year... is a problem.
Overcapitalization has knock-on effects that won’t be good for podcasting.
Investing $1 billion+ into a podcast ecosystem that didn’t have $1 billion in total revenue last year... is a problem.
Overcapitalization has knock-on effects that won’t be good for podcasting.
The negative effects of overcapitalization on podcasting:
- power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™
- small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down
- productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts
- ultimately, people lose their jobs
- power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™
- small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down
- productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts
- ultimately, people lose their jobs
Quibi is the perfect case study for overcapitalization.
Injecting $1.75 billion into an industry doesn’t do anyone any good if it’s not sustainable.
Shows get cancelled. People lose jobs. Dreams are dashed. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/quibis-1-75b-experiment-ends-with-roku-acquisition-for-less-than-100m/
Injecting $1.75 billion into an industry doesn’t do anyone any good if it’s not sustainable.
Shows get cancelled. People lose jobs. Dreams are dashed. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/quibis-1-75b-experiment-ends-with-roku-acquisition-for-less-than-100m/
I was sitting on a chairlift with a guy who asked me what I do.
“I’m in podcasting.”
“What! No way! I just discovered podcasts. I’ve been listening in the truck all the time.”
A friend recommended a show. He found the @ApplePodcasts app, and listened.
Discovery is working.
“I’m in podcasting.”
“What! No way! I just discovered podcasts. I’ve been listening in the truck all the time.”
A friend recommended a show. He found the @ApplePodcasts app, and listened.
Discovery is working.
Discoverability is already working: slow & steady, more and more people are discovering podcasts.
The VCs who want to “fix discoverability” in podcasting don’t give a shit about more people discovering *your* show.
They want to juice the numbers so they get their 100x returns.
The VCs who want to “fix discoverability” in podcasting don’t give a shit about more people discovering *your* show.
They want to juice the numbers so they get their 100x returns.
Trust me: “make a podcast so good that people tell their friends about it” is a way better approach than “I hope the platform’s algorithm features my show.”
Let’s talk about “social audio apps” (like Clubhouse):
I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening.
It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking/social event.”
I think it competes more with meetups than podcasts.
I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening.
It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking/social event.”
I think it competes more with meetups than podcasts.
Predictions about Clubhouse vs podcasts:
1. Podcast listeners increases by ~20% in 2021.
2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. Will be primarily used by early adopters, but not the general population.
3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio app usage will diminish.
1. Podcast listeners increases by ~20% in 2021.
2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. Will be primarily used by early adopters, but not the general population.
3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio app usage will diminish.
I enjoy conversations on Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces, but I think folks are too bullish on the format.
I believe we’ll see an increasing amount of “Clubhouse burnout:”
- hosting a room takes hours of time (my guess is the average is at least 3 hours)
- paradoxically: as more participants join a room the less opportunity for participation there is
- “marketers ruin everything”
- hosting a room takes hours of time (my guess is the average is at least 3 hours)
- paradoxically: as more participants join a room the less opportunity for participation there is
- “marketers ruin everything”
Just published all my thoughts here:
"Podcasts and capital" https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital
"Podcasts and capital" https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital
