CA has done everything “right”: kept schools shut, bankrupted small business, even tried to relegate households of 1 to solitary confinement.
Meanwhile, FL has allowed the things. Lockdown hypothesis predicts CA would fare MUCH better.

Yet CA just overtook FL in cum cases.

If Covidians were doing science, this would be a big deal. It would mean that their core hypothesis—that the key to good outcomes is the stringency of control measures—has yet again made a prediction that has failed.

But since the glory of lockdown is a dogma known to be true a priori, not an empirical hypothesis to be tested a posteriori—we simply correct the data in light of the dogma, not the other way around.

To be clear, this chart described cumulative cases/100k—so it is adjusted for population size.

Of course cases are not the only or even best metric.

If we look at mortality/capita, the signal is even clearer: CA, despite having the 45th oldest population, is about to overtake FL, which has the 2nd oldest population.

How is this consistent w/ lockdown hypothesis? https://twitter.com/numbercruncher3/status/1351603023940870151