Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 25 December) has been released.

3,516 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 5-year average. That’s 45% higher. *

Year to date there have been 604,045 deaths recorded, which is 14% more deaths than the 5-year average (2015-19).

There are 2,916 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate this week. However, there were additional excess deaths because the comparator period averaged fewer working days for death registrations.

85% of the deaths with COVID-19 had it as underlying cause.

* Considerable care is needed when interpreting this week’s numbers due variation in number and timing of Bank Holidays between this week in 2020 and the comparison period (2015-19).

Similar care will be needed for the next two weeks, as 2020 is unusual in being a 53-week year.

A sad milestone, as England and Wales surpasses 600,000 death registrations in a year, for the first time in a century. That’s with a week still to go.

All numbers above are for England and Wales only and are 11-17 days old.

The best way to compare 2020 to earlier years is to examine age-standardised death rates.

Comparing death counts can be distorted slightly by ageing and growth of the population.

The CMI are reporting weekly using this method. Their Mortality Monitor is due out later today.

With Christmas Day falling on a Friday there was no time for a catch-up in week after the Bank Holiday, so we have a fairly “clean” four day week in 2020. Interesting then to compare it to the previous week. Deaths are only 12% lower, rather than the 20% we might expect.