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We previously analysed recurrent #SARSCoV2 mutations for an association with increased transmission using ~47k genomes. At the time, we found no evidence for any mutation making the virus intrinsically more transmissible, including D614G.
1/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2
1/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2
Given the recent interest in the UK and SA variants, @LucyvanDorp and Damien Richard reran the analyses on ~200k genomes. The initial results stand, we find no mutation / deletion statistically associated with increased transmission.
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This conclusion extends to key mutations in the spike protein such as N501Y or 69/70del (shown below). Both arose independently in multiple lineages without providing a transmission advantage to the virus.
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One hypothesis is that only when found in specific combinations that mutations provide higher transmissibility to #SARSCoV2. We are looking into this but it does seem straightforward to identify which combinations may be good candidates for increased transmission.
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