We previously inferred that none of the recurrent mutations observed in #SARSCoV2 is associated with higher transmission using the first ~47k genomes. Does N501Y, widely credited as the driver of the UK and SA lineages force us to revise this inference?
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2 https://twitter.com/Andrew9Boswell/status/1342085136930770944
Below, a tree of ~200k genomes of the data available on 21/12/2020. Emergences of N501Y are shown in purple ('UK lineage' in red). N501Y arose multiple times in different lineages, with the first observation dating back to April.
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Figure credit: Damien Richard and @LucyvanDorp
None of the lineages carrying N501Y took over the world so far. N501Y might increase contagiousness in combination with other mutations, but it is far from obvious which ones those may be. On its own, N501Y is not associated to higher transmission.
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