On the day with the least light, an energy bill arrives:
-PTC (wind) extended for 1 yr, ITC (solar) for 2
-HFC GHG phaseout
-Permanent credit for commercial efficiency
-Offshore wind for 5 yrs/45Q for 2
-$35B/10 yrs for clean R&D
-$14B to transit agencies https://www.eenews.net/eedaily/stories/1063721189
Also includes Waste Heat To Power in ITC. "With directions for increased spending... — including energy storage, carbon capture, direct air capture and advanced nuclear, among others — the bill marks the first major overhaul to the nation's energy policies in over a decade"
Is it enough? No. We need to 5x clean energy R&D, massively build out public transit, deploy solar & storage at federal facilities, electrify federal vehicles & transit buses, deploy charging infrastructure, etc. But "there is a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in"
I know $35B/10 years, or $3.5B/year, for clean energy R&D sounds like a lot. It is good. But $3.5B/year is about what we do now ( https://www.aaas.org/news/winding-path-ahead-science-funding). ARPA-e? It's only $0.425B. When you see billions thrown around, know that we are attacking climate change with not that many.
From a political economy, policy durability, just transition, and regional support perspective, I think a continued big tax credit/support push on solar, wind (on/offshore), AND geothermal (can employ ex oil/gas workers) makes a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/TimMLatimer/status/1341033969165451264?s=20
Given that some renewables in some areas are cost competitive right now, when should the PTC/ITC phase out happen? Since we apply subsidies to correct market failures & to things we want more of, & since the tail of the social cost of carbon is very long, the answer is: never
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