We can pinpoint the start of COVID mortality on 17/3, consistent with increase in ARI ED attendance on 23/2. Mortality returned to normal 22/5, consistent with ARI ED on 30/4. At this time all futile attempts at "controlling the virus" should also have definitively ceased.

The point is very clearly that existing syndromic surveillance data is more than adequate to determine the inception, peak and decline of an unusually virulent respiratory pathogen. There is no need for PCR testing regardless of their known fallacies.

In contrast for 2020/21, we can clearly see that the mortality series is not charcterised by an evident, exogenous agent. The change in natural logarithm is smooth. The excess death for this season is a general phenomenon, more likely the result of disruptions to healthcare.