It's hard to exaggerate the stupidity of calls to shut pubs (& restaurants & leisure) in London & Essex because of the rise in infections: the recent increase relates to infections when pubs were actually closed during lockdown. https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1337383758148886529

The only argument for shutting pubs might be if you could be certain that, otherwise, cases would rise even faster. This could be a plausible theory with packed pubs but hard to see how that works with table service & other precautions in place.

Indeed, it is just as plausible that shutting restaurants & pubs increases infections if it drives people to meet up in homes where Covid precautions may be more variable. The Dutch study supports this theory.

There seems to be little or no good empirical evidence that covid-secure pubs & restaurants play a significant role in infection spread.

SAGE seem just to assume that shutting pubs & restaurants will help. This is not good enough given the huge costs involved.

SAGE deserve a lot of criticism for the non-scientific approach they are taking.

But in the end, politicians decide whether or not to accept recommendations & what @BorisJohnson @MattHancock @RishiSunak & @michaelgove et al are doing to hospitality in England is unforgiveable.