🚨Ahead of this weekend’s probable final episode of a tumultuous four-and half-year process,
here below the ultimate #BrexitThread on everything you need to know about the economics of Brexit before Sunday’s #negotiations climax

👇👇🇪🇺💥🇬🇧👇👇

1/14 https://www.niesr.ac.uk/brexit-negotiations
Brexit Negotiations

You can find all our research on Britain's Brexit negotiations here. This covers three key areas: - the macroeconomic impacts of leaving the EU. We produce and maintain NiGEM, our macroeconomic

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/brexit-negotiations
The 2016 decision to leave the EU has materially altered our prospects but #Policy has not responded. We warned as much in 2016 with an Open Letter from the Directors of @NIESRorg, @CEP_LSE and @TheIFS
@PJTheEconomist @johnvanreenen @s_machin_

2/14 https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/leaving-eu-would-almost-certainly-damage-our-economic-prospects
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

Authors: Jagjit Chadha[1], Paul Johnson[2] and John Van Reenen[3] The economic consequences of leaving the EU have naturally been a central focus of the referendum campaign. As June 23 draws near we

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/leaving-eu-would-almost-certainly-damage-our-economic-prospects
With news of a #deal or #NoDeal expected any day now, a reminder that by 2018 UK's GDP was already 2% lower than if we had voted to Remain, as described in this paper we published at the time. But it was as much about #uncertainty leading to stasis

3/14
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/NIESR%20Report%20Brexit%20-%202018-11-26.pdf
We then estimated that by 2030 the loss in #GDP due to Brexit would rise to some 4.0% under a Free Trade Agreement or 5-6% under an Orderly No Deal. #Trade volume, foreign investment and #productivity would all be lower whether an #FTA is signed or not.

4/14
A year ago we estimated the long run #GDP loss at 3-4% under new PM Johnson’s deal, though we believed it would quite a stretch to have such a #deal in place by 2021… 👇👇👇

5/14

#BrexitDeal
#NoDealBrexit

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-impact-prime-minister-johnsons-new-brexit-deal
…with the largest effects in areas significantly exposed to EU #trade, and any public spending cuts more obviously impacting on areas more reliant on the #publicsector

#Brexit
#UKregions
📉⬇️

6/14

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-impact-prime-minister-johnsons-new-brexit-deal
In an Op-ed by the Director @jagjit_chadha we called for a #policy initiative to reflect and act on the #Brexit shock and help us break out of the doldrums

7/14
👇👇👇 https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/breaking-out-doldrums
Breaking out of the Doldrums

The votes have been counted and the results are in and we now know that the Conservatives will lead an administration with a mandate strong enough to last for a whole Parliamentary term. The deep

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/breaking-out-doldrums
A lot has happened since then, most dramatically #COVID19. Does that mean [ #Brexit / #NoDeal] will pass unnoticed? We looked at this in our November Review, estimating that even though some of the reduction in #GDP due to...

8/14
... #Brexit had already taken place pre-Covid-19, an orderly ‘No Deal’ would leave us even worse off than our FTA baseline ⬇️⬇️⬇️

9/14
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/UK%20November%202020%20-final%2B.pdf
…but #Brexit is likely to damage sectors (finance, manufacturing, mining) in the long run relatively unaffected by #COVID19 as well as retail, which was badly hit by #lockdown but recovered quite quickly

10/14
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/UK%20November%202020%20-final%2B.pdf
Under both our FTA baseline and an orderly #NoDeal scenario, UK is expected to have a slower recovery from the #pandemic compared to other advanced economies, with the recovery likely to take longer under the latter

11/14
What next? For a start do take a look at our Director @jagjit_chadha’s lecture series for @GreshamCollege outlining an approach to a Blueprint for #BrexitBritain

12/14

https://www.gresham.ac.uk/series/blueprint-for-brexit-britain
Our 250th Special Issue of the National Institute Economic Review published last year 'Beyond Brexit: A programme for UK Reform'
@PRG_org

13/14
#NIESRreview 👇
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/national-institute-economic-review/volume/AFAED13F4924EB9E2E9E47BCE46AFA15
Finally for our #Brexit pages and other research, including #blogs, op-eds, research articles and lectures

14/14

#BrexitResearch https://www.niesr.ac.uk/britain-after-brexit
Britain after Brexit

Op-Eds and blogs "The new Bank of England chief needs to avoid mission creep", Jagjit Chadha, The Spectator, 10 March 2020 "The government’s levelling up agenda is a short-term gimmick – real change

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/britain-after-brexit
You can follow @NIESRorg.
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