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OK, I keep getting asked why our #COVID19 rates are so high. Here are my best guesses. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1336378612707016706
1. An incomplete explanation:
We are a small state. Small variations in #s have a big effect.
Of course, this is the start of the explanation, but not the full picture.... because our rate keeps going up and up and up.
We are a small state. Small variations in #s have a big effect.
Of course, this is the start of the explanation, but not the full picture.... because our rate keeps going up and up and up.
2. Another incomplete explanation:
We are doing a LOT of testing. And the one place I will agree with DJT: bc of tests, we will be identifying more cases.
That said: our hospitalizations are also quite high (40/100K). Data from @CovidActNow
We are doing a LOT of testing. And the one place I will agree with DJT: bc of tests, we will be identifying more cases.
That said: our hospitalizations are also quite high (40/100K). Data from @CovidActNow
3. A POTENTIAL REAL EXPLANATION:
We have a LOT of college students per capita. When colleges came back, #s spiked, & seeded infections in the community that quickly (as per #1) spread in our small state, leading to where we are now. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/23/metro/rhode-island-sees-rises-cases-positivity-rate-week/
We have a LOT of college students per capita. When colleges came back, #s spiked, & seeded infections in the community that quickly (as per #1) spread in our small state, leading to where we are now. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/23/metro/rhode-island-sees-rises-cases-positivity-rate-week/
4. ANOTHER POTENTIAL REAL EXPLANATION:
We are a very tight-knit state. Family is *everything*. 2/3 of RIers never move out of the state. And we know that our much-treasured family gatherings are often superspreader events. https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Wellness/family-sends-thanksgiving-covid-19-warning-15-infected/story?id=74357656
We are a very tight-knit state. Family is *everything*. 2/3 of RIers never move out of the state. And we know that our much-treasured family gatherings are often superspreader events. https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Wellness/family-sends-thanksgiving-covid-19-warning-15-infected/story?id=74357656
5. ANOTHER POTENTIAL REAL EXPLANATION:
We are the 2nd most densely populated state, with lots of multi-family & multi-generational homes
-> this leads to fast spread, simply because people can't distance from each other
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhode_Island
We are the 2nd most densely populated state, with lots of multi-family & multi-generational homes
-> this leads to fast spread, simply because people can't distance from each other
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhode_Island
6. ANOTHER POTENTIAL REAL EXPLANATION:
We also have a lot of poverty, a lot of essential workers, & a lot of immigrants.
And we know that economic & racial inequity are major drivers of transmission of the virus. https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20171120/report-ri-poverty-rate-is-highest-in-ne
We also have a lot of poverty, a lot of essential workers, & a lot of immigrants.
And we know that economic & racial inequity are major drivers of transmission of the virus. https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20171120/report-ri-poverty-rate-is-highest-in-ne
7. ONE LAST EXPLANATION:
Most of our state's indoor activities just closed last Monday (we won't see decreases in counts due to these actions for at least 2-4 weeks) - and indoor restaurants remain open.
Most of our state's indoor activities just closed last Monday (we won't see decreases in counts due to these actions for at least 2-4 weeks) - and indoor restaurants remain open.
(NB: We are FAR from the only state with in-person schooling. Our infection rates at schools - like elsewhere in the country - remain low, & are not unique to RI. We may need to close in-person simply bc of staffing issues.... but I do not blame our rate on our schools.)
At the end of the day, regardless of the reason, our hospitals are overwhelmed & everyone knows someone who's sick.
We are calling for retired HCWs to volunteer, while allowing people to eat in-person at Denny's.
We are, frankly, in a very bad spot. With no sign of slowing.
We are calling for retired HCWs to volunteer, while allowing people to eat in-person at Denny's.
We are, frankly, in a very bad spot. With no sign of slowing.
I maintain faith in @RIHEALTH, in our allegiance to data, & in our willingness to do the right thing.
But the time to act must be *now*.
But the time to act must be *now*.
PPS: An additional item to consider is that our *positivity* rate is rising partly bc college students are not here any longer. (Our colleges were doing *1/3* of the testing in the state - with very low infection rates, after the early fall surge got controlled.)
And someone brilliantly added this as a reason for our high rates. I will add that we are a state of hospitality & food services. A great point - thank you @rhoderedpvd https://twitter.com/rhoderedpvd/status/1336435820149010438?s=19
