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In preparing to examine the shifts in state/nat'l margins from 2016 to 2020, I've started by looking at 2012 --> 2016
What I'm looking at is not the raw margin (i.e. how much Obama or Clinton won/lost each state by), but by the *difference* between state and nat'l margins.
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What I'm looking at is not the raw margin (i.e. how much Obama or Clinton won/lost each state by), but by the *difference* between state and nat'l margins.
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Consider 2012: Obama won nationally by 4%. He won California by 23%.
We would say that in 2012, California was a D+19 (or R-19) state, i.e. the Democrat performed 19 points better in California than the country as a whole.
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We would say that in 2012, California was a D+19 (or R-19) state, i.e. the Democrat performed 19 points better in California than the country as a whole.
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These are interesting on their own, but the shifts between elections are more enlightening.
In the spreadsheet below, I've listed the "R+" numbers from each election, and the movement between 2012 and 2016, and sorted in ascending order.
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In the spreadsheet below, I've listed the "R+" numbers from each election, and the movement between 2012 and 2016, and sorted in ascending order.
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Negative numbers denote states that became relatively more D vs. the nation as a whole.
Positive are states that became relatively more R vs. the nation as a whole.
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Positive are states that became relatively more R vs. the nation as a whole.
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Here is the spreadsheet
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Takeaways (ignore Utah, major outlier with Romney and then McMullin):
- Dems biggest gains were in enormous states CA and TX, which swung a lot of popular vote, but no effect on the Electoral College
- This explains Obama's +2 EC advantage in 2012 going to Trump +3 in 2016
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- Dems biggest gains were in enormous states CA and TX, which swung a lot of popular vote, but no effect on the Electoral College
- This explains Obama's +2 EC advantage in 2012 going to Trump +3 in 2016
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- Dems also made gains in largely suburban/educated states like AZ, NE-2, MA, GA, VA, MD CO
- Most of these were either solidly blue or too far to the red to make a difference
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- Most of these were either solidly blue or too far to the red to make a difference
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- In contrast, huge Republican gains were made in IA, OH, ME-2, MI, WI, largely white, largely rural states
- Many of these were near the tipping point and made a huge difference in 2016.
- Iowa going from D+2 to R+11.5 is insane. Like the opposite of CO/VA in 2008.
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- Many of these were near the tipping point and made a huge difference in 2016.
- Iowa going from D+2 to R+11.5 is insane. Like the opposite of CO/VA in 2008.
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Looking ahead to 2020, some trends we already know:
- GA and AZ continued their leftward march, and this time enough to make a difference (AZ R+6 to R+3; GA R+7 to R+3)
- TX didn't move enough (R+11 to R+10)
- WI even slightly more R (R+3 to R+4)
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- GA and AZ continued their leftward march, and this time enough to make a difference (AZ R+6 to R+3; GA R+7 to R+3)
- TX didn't move enough (R+11 to R+10)
- WI even slightly more R (R+3 to R+4)
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Understanding the popular vote vs. Electoral College split evolves going ahead to 2024 depends on calculations like this.
I will update when the final 2020 numbers are tabulated.
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I will update when the final 2020 numbers are tabulated.
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