There is a paper out reporting high prevalence of #SARSCoV2 antibodies (IgG/IgM) in Italy from early September on. Factoring in a 1-2 week needed for seroconversion, this would imply that #COVID19 was in widespread circulation in Italy in August or before.
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There is evidence #SARSCoV2 was in circulation in Italy in December 2019 based on the analysis of wastewater. There have been claims for earlier circulation in Spain and South America but the evidence behind the latter claims was highly unconvincing.
3/ https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1277230558473523201
Analyses of thousands of #SARSCoV2 genomes point to an origin (host jump into humans) in ~Oct/Nov 2019 in China, and a rapid spread to Europe. Irrespective of how we run the analyses, circulation in Italy in August is incompatible with the data.
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1567134820301829
Given all the other available evidence, circulation of #SARSCoV2 in Italy in August is a very strong claim, which would require strong evidence. The paper does not make a convincing case. The methods are poorly explained and there is no negative or positive control provided.
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They might have picked up cross-reactivity with two endemic 'common cold' HCoVs (OC43 and HKU1), which have fairly high homology in some regions of the spike protein. Though, it is difficult to be sure given the limited evidence provided in the paper.
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Unless it can be confirmed by far better evidence, I believe the claim of #COVID19 circulating in Italy in August can be safely ignored. The bulk of the evidence points to emergence of #SARSCoV2 ~Oct/Nov 2019 in China, and a spread to Europe (Northern Italy) in ~Nov/Dec 2019.
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This is a typical case of much of what is wrong with science (and science reporting) in the #COVID19 era. Strong claims supported by flimsy evidence get widely reported without the necessary scrutiny and consideration of a wider body of available evidence.
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