Thread: my take on "what happened?" and how to go forward.

1) The supposed defection of working-class whites and seniors from Trump never materialized. This was a mirage. Dem overperformance relative to 2016 was predominantly, as in 2018, among suburban professionals.

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2) Working-class Hispanic voters were susceptible to Trump's cultural and anti-socialist message. These voters, despite what highly-educated activists believe, are not bothered by persecution of Latino migrants and harsh GOP rhetoric on immigration.

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3) Some black voters, particularly men, were similarly lured to Trump by faux-machismo and resentment of cultural elites. A lot of working class black voters don't hold the attitudes on, e.g. policing, that activists think they do. Many just care about jobs.

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4) Lincoln Project Republicans were convinced to turn out for Biden and made the difference in states like AZ, but were not convinced to go the full nine yards down-ballot, leading to a lot of ticket-splitting and ugly results in House/Senate/state legislature races.

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If Dems are not careful, the narrative will not be that Trump threaded a needle in 2016, but that the Dems threaded a needle in 2020, cementing a hold on educated elites while retaining just enough support in the upper Midwest and among minorities to win the presidency.

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Republicans have (sadly) convinced a lot of the working class that because the GOP purports to identify with them culturally (mostly around antiquated cultural touchstones), that they actually will look out for their interests.

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The working class thinks nobody cares about them economically, so they might as well support the people who share their attitude on nationalism, education, religion, and culture.

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Marco Rubio wants to re-brand the GOP as a multi-racial working class party. This is laughable, of course, because this is exactly what the Dems have promoted for decades, but it may work if Dems aren't careful because disengaged voters will not necessarily see it that way.

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What to do going forward: make it glaringly obvious that Dems are the party of workers -- have their back on economic issues -- that the working class has no choice but to vote along those lines regardless of cultural attitudes.

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Dems would also be well-served to tone down judgment on people "getting with the times". There are ways to stand up to injustice and bigotry without shaming folks on the sidelines who then reflexively decide that bigotry isn't so bad. It shouldn't be this way, but it is.

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Biden needs to hammer these meat and potatoes economic issues that benefit workers of all stripes from Day 1. Make it obvious what the Democratic Party stands for and rebuild that brand. We are the party of FDR and LBJ, Social Security and Medicare.

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Too many people are unsure who/what the party represents and feel that it fights for issues that only elites care about (e.g. climate).

It's a persuasion problem and a messenging problem. But until those are resolved, hammer the basics (min wage, fair tax code, healthcare).

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Every issue the Dems take up should pass the litmus test of "will working class folks think we're doing this for them or will they think we're just doing this for the satisfaction of educated elites?"

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As an avowed educated elite, the growth of ignorant, right-wing populism has been appalling.

We must be the party of responsible, compassionate populism.

Policies should be crafted by experts, but our values should come from those who need us (and who we need) the most.

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