So far in the seven heavily red PA counties that have reported provisionals, they've represented just 0.9% of all ballots and have only broken for Trump by 3.7% more than his share of the other votes (76.1% vs. 72.4%).

Here's why that's probably not good enough for Trump...

If you were to take those proportions and extrapolate them to the rest of the counties, it would only net Trump about 5k votes (+31k Trump to +26k Biden). Right now, he's on track to finish the remaining mail ballot count down by 50k+ votes. But that's not all...

Modeling off these seven counties would project there are only 57k more provisional ballots to count.

In reality, PA officials have said there are at least 92k that remain to be adjudicated/counted, w/ a much higher share in Philadelphia (17k). That's good news for Biden.

So basically, provisionals are only 0.9% of all ballots in these deeply red/Trump counties, but may be more than 2% of all ballots cast in Philadelphia - perhaps b/c many non-white Dems requested mail ballots but voted in person (and didn't bring their mail ballots to surrender).

That would suggest these provisionals might be a wash, at best, for Trump. But we’ll see.