A thread on the voter who would enable a Democratic landslide.

Now that the dust has mostly settled, we know the rough outcome of this race -- a moderate Biden win (~5% popular vote, ~1-2% in the tipping point states), a narrow victory in the House, just short in the Senate.

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In a vacuum, this is not horrible -- controlling 2/3 of the trifecta, and only a seat or two away in a Senate that is increasingly tilted against Democrats. But relative to expectations of a landslide and a full trifecta, it is disappointing.

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Let's talk about the voter who denied Democrats a landslide result, the voter who Democrats would have to reach to win that landslide. I will call them the Median Landslide Voter (MLV).

This is not the overall median voter (who the Democrats won), but is ~4-5% to the right.

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Final exit polls will tell a more complete story, but here is my interpretation of that voter's outlook and what motivates their vote. I will start with a few specific issues and then try to generalize.

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To be perfectly clear, this thread is NOT a commentary on their views, but is a sober assessment of who the Democrats would have to connect with.

This is also not a prescription of how to reach that voter. That will come later.

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COVID: the MLV is just tired of hearing about it and itching to get back to "normal". They know some limits are needed, and don't mind wearing masks, but resent being browbeaten about it or shamed about seeing people in person.

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They don't think government can do anything about it (thanks, GOP), so would rather just vote for someone who isn't going to make it the focus. They're also much more concerned about the economy and willing to tolerate risks to their and everyone's health to keep it afloat.

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Racism/Policing: the MLV thinks racism is bad, but isn't convinced it's a widespread issue and is skeptical of "systemic racism". They think police brutality against blacks is isolated incidents, not even necessarily racially motivated, and resent the impulse to cry "racism".

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They also likely believe that violence is endemic to protests and property destruction is a bigger problem than the racism being protested. They sympathize with most protesters, but don't think the protests are overall a net positive.

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Racism/Diversity: relatedly, the MLV does not see value in diversity for its own sake, especially when it comes to what they would consider forced diversity in the workplace/colleges/etc. They resent hearing about issues "disproportionately affecting" certain groups...

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...and want to hear about things that benefit everyone (even if unequally). I would venture that even the Black/Latino voters close to the MLV don't appreciate hearing issues presented in this way, consider it pandering; the white MLV absolutely resent it outright.

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Climate: the MLV wants to protect the environment, but doesn't see climate change as an existential threat/near-term problem, doesn't want to hamstring the economy for a problem that doesn't affect them. Skeptical that pushes for green energy would do more good than harm.

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Economy: the MLV reflexively thinks Republicans are better for the economy because of tax cuts (even those beneficial to the wealthy) and their indifference to climate and other regulations.

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Immigration: the MLV appreciates immigrants who come here and assimilate, but have little sympathy for illegal immigrants and aren't particularly moved by inhumane treatment of immigrants and asylum seekers (even children) at the border. This is even true of the Latino MLV.

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Global affairs: the MLV isn't particularly concerned about world opinion, enjoys American primacy in the world, but sees that more through a lens of military might or economic strength, not "soft power" diplomatic issues like the Paris accords or aid to developing countries.

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General conclusions: the MLV does not want to be told that he should care about the wellbeing of others and the collective whole. For them, COVID, climate, systemic racism, immigration, etc. are boutique issues for the well-off...

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...and are either non-motivators or outright sources of resentment against experts and educated elites. This is as arguably a *cultural* issue more than a policy issue.

I could give opinions on what this voter likely thinks of other issues, but that's a good enough start.

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