So, back into lockdown. What happens now?

In March we saw evidence of an abrupt fall in the transmission rate.

COVID hospital admissions kept rising for just over a week after lockdown was announced, then fell rapidly. Admissions fell by half in under 3 weeks from the peak. /1

Deaths kept rising for 2 weeks after lockdown, as might be expected. Then they too peaked and 3 weeks later daily deaths had halved.

So, worsening hospital admissions and deaths numbers is inevitable in the short term. /2

What happens from mid November is much less certain. I think it unlikely that things turn around as quickly as before.

Firstly, the weather isn’t in our favour this time. Instead of a warm dry April - the sunniest on record - we have short and cold November days. /3

Secondly, the measures imposed are less restrictive this time. That might be right or wrong in term of long term consequences to our physical and mental health. In the immediate term though, less strict controls means less effect slowing transmission of the virus. /4

Lastly, it is likely that compliance with the new measures will not be as good as we saw in the first wave, when the vast majority stayed at home as requested. The goodwill and sense of national unity doesn’t seem to be there. /5

There is every chance that daily deaths numbers are no lower at the end of November than they are today.

That myst surely be a significant consideration when restrictions are reviewed on 2 December. /end