Read on Twitter
In their March 16 paper, Imperial could not have put this point more bluntly.
And in late March, @WesPegden spelled out some of the concrete implications of this same point.
Not sure why everyone has ignored this.
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1296132628110807042
And in late March, @WesPegden spelled out some of the concrete implications of this same point.
Not sure why everyone has ignored this.
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1296132628110807042
In fact, even as it has became clear that not only is eradication unlikely in principle but impossible in fact--we continue to ignore this.
And we still regard it as heresy to be intentional about managing spread. Those who raise that are told they have blood on their hands.
And we still regard it as heresy to be intentional about managing spread. Those who raise that are told they have blood on their hands.
Of course, pretending like Plan A is still the only option has meant that rather than Plan B (intentionally developing a rational strategy for managing spread to optimize outcome) we are defaulting to Plan C (unintentional/unmanaged spread).
Given the age-gradient of risk alone, Plan B can save a lot of lives vs Plan C.
See, e.g.: https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1248617666308235264?s=20
See also:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236237
See, e.g.: https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1248617666308235264?s=20
See also:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236237
So, it is really those that are willing to accept a default to Plan C based on a delusion that Plan A is still possible that are hurting people.
Opposition to condoms doesn't mean abstinence. It means unplanned pregnancies.
Opposition to condoms doesn't mean abstinence. It means unplanned pregnancies.
The Rona orthodoxy needs to come to grips with that facts as they are. Virtue signaling about how things should be is not just annoying. It's actually outright dangerous at this point.
