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To save society from this virus, we need to focus on daily fast #COVID19 tests. These are more critical now than even vaccines
Forget the headlines! These are not less accurate. They are perhaps MORE accurate to tell when transmitting
Ill explain
1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/rapid-Covid-tests.html
Forget the headlines! These are not less accurate. They are perhaps MORE accurate to tell when transmitting
Ill explain
1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/rapid-Covid-tests.html
The “high sensitivity” PCR tests are diagnostic. They look for any remnants of the virus - great for diagnostics
But the MAJORITY of time someone is PCR positive, those remnants do not indicate transmissible virus. They indicate remnants of a recently cleared infection
2/
But the MAJORITY of time someone is PCR positive, those remnants do not indicate transmissible virus. They indicate remnants of a recently cleared infection
2/
Once cleared, PCR remains positive. Most people today who are diagnosed are swabbed after their infective period is over. Perhaps 2-4 weeks!
Despite this, contact tracers are deployed to trace their contacts during the two days before the collection. This is useless!
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Despite this, contact tracers are deployed to trace their contacts during the two days before the collection. This is useless!
3/
To stop transmission chains, we don’t need a virus test that is usually discovering people who were previously infected
To defeat this virus we need to narrow the scope of positivity. We need a MORE accurate test than PCR, that turns positive when someone is able to transmit
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To defeat this virus we need to narrow the scope of positivity. We need a MORE accurate test than PCR, that turns positive when someone is able to transmit
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We need tests that tell you if you are infectious today - “transmission blocking tests”.
They are not less accurate than PCR if the goal is detecting transmitting people.
They are potentially more accurate bc PCR is usually detecting people no longer transmitting.
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They are not less accurate than PCR if the goal is detecting transmitting people.
They are potentially more accurate bc PCR is usually detecting people no longer transmitting.
5/
We must rewrite this concept and get this point across.
RNA detection alone is NOT useful for sensitivity comparisons if your goal is detecting transmissibility.
RNA is not specific for this and we can’t expect a transmission detecting test to be positive just bc PCR is.
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RNA detection alone is NOT useful for sensitivity comparisons if your goal is detecting transmissibility.
RNA is not specific for this and we can’t expect a transmission detecting test to be positive just bc PCR is.
6/
Used daily by millions and millions of people, these tests WILL STOP TRANSMISSION CHAINS.
They don’t need to be perfect to work. Herd immunity is achieved when 60% of the population is immune, not 100%.
Similar concept exists with these daily tests.
7/
They don’t need to be perfect to work. Herd immunity is achieved when 60% of the population is immune, not 100%.
Similar concept exists with these daily tests.
7/
These tests of transmission will detect superspreaders.
If we can stop most superspreaders from walking into classrooms or restaurants, we will all be safer.
As more and more people start using the tests, transmission chains will crumble and outbreaks curbed.
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If we can stop most superspreaders from walking into classrooms or restaurants, we will all be safer.
As more and more people start using the tests, transmission chains will crumble and outbreaks curbed.
8/
These must be viewed as public health tools. Same as masks. They will provide local protection to stop individual transmission events.
But the population level effect is what wins the day.
If we can stop community transmission overall, then we are all safer
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But the population level effect is what wins the day.
If we can stop community transmission overall, then we are all safer
9/
When used by many people, even if not everyone, these tests will
1)break transmission
2)drop R below 1
3)create an artificial herd immunity-like effect
This stops deaths and buys us a lot of time to get vaccines built properly.
10/
1)break transmission
2)drop R below 1
3)create an artificial herd immunity-like effect
This stops deaths and buys us a lot of time to get vaccines built properly.
10/
This shouldn’t be left to a handful of companies!
The full force of the US Govt should be pushing for these tests - billions of $$ should be spent to refine and manufacture these at scale today, like warpspeed!
They’re our ticket out now! We need urgency for them!!
11/11
The full force of the US Govt should be pushing for these tests - billions of $$ should be spent to refine and manufacture these at scale today, like warpspeed!
They’re our ticket out now! We need urgency for them!!
11/11
We have put together some information at http://rapidtests.org
