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This study is going around top scientists. I have diff interpretation:
The 2nd col in Table 2 is 'non-household' contacts, which would be the data to apply to schools, right?
--> It shows that outside the home 10-19 yr olds are *half* as likely to transmit as adults… https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1284644413470203909
This study is going around top scientists. I have diff interpretation:
The 2nd col in Table 2 is 'non-household' contacts, which would be the data to apply to schools, right?
--> It shows that outside the home 10-19 yr olds are *half* as likely to transmit as adults… https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1284644413470203909
2/ in fact, they are *the same* as 0-9 year olds (and half of adults)
NON-HOUSEHOLD
0-9 --> 1.1
10-19 --> 0.9
...
40-49 --> 2.0
NON-HOUSEHOLD
0-9 --> 1.1
10-19 --> 0.9
...
40-49 --> 2.0
3/ If you want to understand *within-home* transmission, the appropriate column is column 1 (‘household’ contact)
But for outside the home (like schools…), the more appropriate column to me is column 2 (‘non-household’)
Many (most?) people seem to be only using column 1.
But for outside the home (like schools…), the more appropriate column to me is column 2 (‘non-household’)
Many (most?) people seem to be only using column 1.
4/ let's look at both (I've covered column 2 already)
If question is: "Once someone is sick and brings it home, how often do they transmit to people in their house?", then, yes, the data in column 1 would apply (the column labeled 'household' transmission')
If question is: "Once someone is sick and brings it home, how often do they transmit to people in their house?", then, yes, the data in column 1 would apply (the column labeled 'household' transmission')
5/ Those data seem to show 10-19 year olds spread to people in their home at much higher rates (18%).
I’m cautious on this because…
I’m cautious on this because…
6/ ...what jumps out at me is that for that age group it's 18%, but....
...the 20-29 age group drops back down to 7%, and only hits 18% again at age group 70-79 (??)
...the 20-29 age group drops back down to 7%, and only hits 18% again at age group 70-79 (??)
7/ Does no one else find that odd and incongruent?
Not saying we shouldn't trust the data, but doesn't the 18% jump off the page when looking at this table?
Not saying we shouldn't trust the data, but doesn't the 18% jump off the page when looking at this table?
8/ Look at the overall trend in data.
Is it plausible that 10-19 are so unique from their immediate younger (5.3%) and immediate older cohort (7%), and more similar to 70-70 yr olds (18%)?
Is it plausible that 10-19 are so unique from their immediate younger (5.3%) and immediate older cohort (7%), and more similar to 70-70 yr olds (18%)?
9/ Some big picture thoughts:
-This is high quality source of data but so far I'm not sure the interpretation is clean
-Transmission by kids is a critical question. There is enough here to be cautious with interpretation, either way
-This is high quality source of data but so far I'm not sure the interpretation is clean
-Transmission by kids is a critical question. There is enough here to be cautious with interpretation, either way
10/
Transmission between kids and kids to adults is *1 part* of schools calculus.
What *is* resolved, and needs to be in convo w/ this:
--> Kids less likely to get the virus than adults
--> Kids less likely to suffer the most severe consequences
Transmission between kids and kids to adults is *1 part* of schools calculus.
What *is* resolved, and needs to be in convo w/ this:
--> Kids less likely to get the virus than adults
--> Kids less likely to suffer the most severe consequences
11/
--> Massive individ and societal costs to school closures
--> There are effective risk reduction strategies for schools
--> Need to control community spread
-- END THREAD -- https://schools.forhealth.org/risk-reduction-strategies-for-reopening-schools/
--> Massive individ and societal costs to school closures
--> There are effective risk reduction strategies for schools
--> Need to control community spread
-- END THREAD -- https://schools.forhealth.org/risk-reduction-strategies-for-reopening-schools/
