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Nothing drives home why the Trump/Pence ticket is badly behind & out of step w/ public opinion quite like tonight's rally and this answer:
At the same time, people should appreciate there's not a huge distance between a Biden electoral landslide (where we are today) and a narrow Trump electoral win.
If Biden were to ultimately win the popular vote 51%-47%, I wouldn't be able to guarantee he'd win the election.
If Biden were to ultimately win the popular vote 51%-47%, I wouldn't be able to guarantee he'd win the election.
In 2016, Trump did 2.9% better in the tipping point state (Wisconsin, +0.8%) than he did in the popular vote (-2.1%).
Right now, Biden is ahead by 9% in the @RealClearNews national average, but by 4-6% in the four likeliest tipping point states (AZ, FL, PA, WI) - a larger gap.
Right now, Biden is ahead by 9% in the @RealClearNews national average, but by 4-6% in the four likeliest tipping point states (AZ, FL, PA, WI) - a larger gap.
A big part of this could be that state polls are still sparse and haven't fully caught up w/ the recent expansion in Biden's national lead.
But even before the primaries, there were reasons to believe the pro-Trump electoral bias has increased since 2016. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601
But even before the primaries, there were reasons to believe the pro-Trump electoral bias has increased since 2016. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601
Make no mistake: Trump is in dreadful shape & Biden is the clear favorite right now.
But the race is still closer than most people might assume looking at the national polls. And I won't apologize for continuing to point that out.
But the race is still closer than most people might assume looking at the national polls. And I won't apologize for continuing to point that out.
